Pakistanis hoping for a bitterly cold winter filled with freezing nights and chilly winds may have to adjust their expectations this year. According to the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD), the winter season of 2025–26 is expected to be warmer than usual, with temperatures projected to remain above normal levels across most regions.

In a recent forecast, PMD spokesperson Anjum Nazeer stated that the months of November, December, and January—which typically bring the coldest wave of the year—are likely to have less intense winter conditions. Climate experts attribute this warming pattern to ongoing climate change influences and global atmospheric shifts, including the stronger-than-usual presence of the El Niño phenomenon in preceding seasons.

What Will This Winter Look Like?

Historically, winter in Pakistan brings snowfall in the northern mountains, fog in the plains of Punjab and Sindh, and noticeably colder nights nationwide. However, this winter may be comparatively gentler:

• Temperatures expected to stay above the seasonal average, particularly during daytime.
• Northern areas, including Gilgit-Baltistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s upper regions, may still witness cold spells, but less severe than usual.
• Southern and coastal regions such as Karachi, Hyderabad, and Gwadar may experience only short-lived cool weather.
• Nights will remain cool but not extremely cold, even in traditionally chilly regions.

While winter will still arrive, it may lack the sharp cold waves Pakistanis typically prepare for.

Why a Warmer Winter? The Climate Science Behind It

Meteorologists explain that the expected temperature rise is consistent with broader climate warming trends affecting South Asia. Human-driven greenhouse gas emissions continue altering global weather patterns, resulting in:

• Increased heat absorption in the earth’s atmosphere
• Disrupted wind and pressure patterns
• Shorter and milder winters in various regions

Additionally, reduced snowfall in Himalayan ranges in previous seasons may contribute to warmer downstream climates, lowering the chances of prolonged cold conditions.

Experts also cite a weakening of western disturbance systems—the weather systems responsible for rain and cold waves in Pakistan during winter.

Impact on Agriculture and Water Resources

Warmer winters may help citizens avoid harsh cold, but the agricultural sector could face challenges:

• Wheat crops, which require colder temperatures, may suffer from lower yields.
• Pest populations often die in extreme cold—warmer weather may allow them to thrive longer.
• Reduced snowfall in mountains can lead to water shortages in summer, as glaciers store less ice.

Farmers and policymakers are urged to adopt climate-resilient approaches, such as improved irrigation planning and research-based crop management techniques.

Effect on Daily Life and Energy Demand

There may be some short-term benefits:

✅ Lower consumption of gas and electricity for heating
✅ Less strain on households amid Pakistan’s ongoing energy shortages
✅ Reduced risk of cold-related illnesses among vulnerable populations

However, meteorologists warn that unexpected short cold waves can still occur, urging citizens not to become too complacent.

Fog may still develop in Punjab’s plains and motorway routes, posing visibility-related hazards, especially in late December and January mornings.

Global Trend of Warmer Winters

Pakistan is not alone—many countries across Europe, Asia, and North America are observing declining winter severity over the past decade. Climate scientists warn that the world is entering an era where heatwaves become more frequent while winters shrink in duration and strength.

A recent global report suggests:

• The last 10 years have been the warmest on record
• Winter temperatures are rising faster than summer in many regions
• Seasonal shifts are impacting ecosystems, agriculture, and water cycles

This shift demands urgent attention and climate adaptation policies.

Will There Be Snowfall in Northern Pakistan?

Tourist hotspots like Murree, Naran, Kaghan, Swat, Skardu, and Hunza are still expected to get snowfall, ensuring winter tourism remains active. However:

• The snowfall period may be shorter
• Snow depths may be lower than the long-term average
• Occasional rainfall deficiencies could occur during cold fronts

Hotels and tourism businesses are advised to prepare for tourism fluctuations depending on weather patterns.

Public Advisory and Preparedness

While a milder winter might seem like good news for many, PMD stresses that weather variability remains possible, and occasional strong cold snaps cannot be ruled out. Citizens are encouraged to:

• Stay updated through official weather bulletins
• Take preventive measures during foggy conditions
• Plan travel with caution during midnight-to-morning driving hours
• Use energy resources efficiently as national gas shortages may still occur

Conclusion

Pakistan’s upcoming winter season is shaping up to be less severe than usual, driven by growing climate impacts and shifting global weather systems. While the reduced cold may offer comfort to many, challenges remain for agriculture, water resources, and environmental stability.