Efforts are once again underway to revive diplomatic negotiations between the United States and Iran. But this time, a different set of questions dominate the conversation in Tehran: Should Iran place its trust in Donald Trump again? How much reliance should be placed on foreign allies like Russia and China? And what, if anything, could be Iran\u2019s trump card\u2014or rather, Trump\u2019s trump card\u2014in these high-stakes talks?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
According to a senior Western diplomat who spoke anonymously, Tehran has experienced not just the physical devastation of war, but also psychological and diplomatic shocks that have shaken its long-standing beliefs about international alliances. One key realization is the limited reliability of so-called \u201cimagined allies\u201d like Russia and China.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There had been widespread assumptions in Iranian political and analytical circles that, should Israel and the United States escalate their attacks on Iran beyond a certain threshold, Moscow and Beijing would step forward as protective buffers. These assumptions gained temporary weight when Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of Russia\u2019s Security Council, claimed that an American attack on Iran\u2019s nuclear installations might prompt several countries to directly supply nuclear weapons to Iran. However, he later clarified that Russia would not be among those nations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite past cooperation, Russia\u2019s commitment to Iran appears circumstantial rather than ideological. Analysts point out that Moscow never played the robust supporting role it was expected to when it came to defending Iran\u2019s interests in Syria during the civil war to protect the Assad regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Moreover, in terms of economics, Russia\u2019s relationship with Iran is laced with contradiction. On one hand, both countries share a mutual interest in countering US influence. On the other hand, if US sanctions on Iran were lifted, the Islamic Republic could flood the global market with oil, significantly reducing Russia\u2019s share and damaging its already strained wartime economy. For a Russia burdened by the costs of the Ukraine conflict, this would be an unwelcome outcome.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
China\u2019s stance remains cautious and calculated. It has historically avoided direct involvement in foreign conflicts, preferring instead to fortify its global economic footprint. Nonetheless, Beijing has made it clear\u2014through diplomatic signals\u2014that it is now militarily capable of defending its national interests. But whether this military readiness would ever be deployed to protect Iran remains highly doubtful.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
So, if neither Russia nor China can be fully relied upon as strategic shields, what options does Iran have?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The primary fallback is self-reliance, particularly in national defense and nuclear policy. But herein lies a challenge: if new negotiations include clauses that require Iran to halt uranium enrichment or scale back its missile development, they may prove deeply contentious and complex. Such demands would run counter to Iran’s strategic pursuit of deterrence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
According to an Iranian diplomat, this is precisely where the role of the Sultanate of Oman becomes crucial. Known for its mastery in quiet diplomacy, Oman has historically served as a vital channel of communication between Tehran and Washington. The country\u2019s longstanding commitment to regional peace has earned it a unique level of trust from both sides.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, the three European signatories of the 2015 Iran Nuclear Deal\u2014Britain, France, and Germany\u2014are pushing for the resumption of indirect talks between Iran and the United States. They argue that diplomatic engagement must continue, even amid active conflict. Dialogue, they stress, is not optional but essential\u2014even during war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, hopes for a breakthrough suffered a significant blow on June 13 when Israel launched a direct attack on Iran. The U.S. soon joined the fray, targeting Iran\u2019s nuclear facilities in a 12-day bombing campaign that pushed the region to the brink of another all-out war. A ceasefire was reached on June 24, but not without damage\u2014both physical and diplomatic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite the destruction, Iranian military analysts believe one important lesson emerged: the effectiveness of Iran\u2019s missile defense systems. These capabilities allowed Tehran to mount a meaningful counter-response, ultimately forcing a truce. Strengthening these defense mechanisms has since become a strategic priority.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
With military calculations in place, attention is again turning to diplomatic channels. Experts now say Oman\u2019s role is more significant than ever. As a neutral broker, Oman is seen as uniquely capable of bridging gaps, restoring trust, and possibly reviving the long-stalled nuclear dialogue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Now, attention turns to what might be the key motivator behind Washington\u2019s engagement: economics. Some analysts believe Trump\u2019s strategy to impose higher tariffs on countries purchasing oil from Russia is part of a broader scheme to economically isolate Moscow. If Iran were to be reintegrated into global markets through a successful deal, it would offer an alternative source of oil, thereby weakening Russia\u2019s economic leverage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Seen in this light, the removal of sanctions from Iran might not just be about diplomacy with Tehran, but also a tactical move against Moscow. This would make a successful US-Iran deal a powerful geopolitical tool\u2014or a \u201ctrump card\u201d in the truest sense\u2014for the American administration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In this volatile landscape, filled with mistrust and shifting alliances, Iran stands at a crossroads. The path to renewed dialogue is fraught with complexity\u2014military calculations, economic repercussions, and deep-rooted geopolitical rivalries. But if any breakthrough is to be achieved, it will likely require more than backchannel diplomacy. It will require bold strategic vision, a willingness to compromise, and perhaps most importantly, an understanding that in global politics, yesterday\u2019s allies can quickly become today\u2019s competitors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As for Iran, its greatest asset may be not just in missiles or uranium stockpiles, but in its ability to leverage diplomatic ambiguity and economic necessity\u2014a tactic it has perfected over decades of isolation and pressure. Whether this will be enough to bring Washington back to the table remains to be seen. But one thing is clear: in this game of high-stakes diplomacy, no card\u2014no matter how surprising\u2014can be ruled out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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